استخدام الشالسل الزمنية يف التنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة للدراسات العليا يف جامعة أم القرى
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1 اململكة العربية السعودية وزارة التعليم العالي جامعة أم القرى كلية الرتبية/قسم علم النفس ختصص احصاء وحبوث استخدام الشالسل الزمنية يف التنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة للدراسات العليا يف جامعة أم القرى إعداد الطالب علي حمسن أمحد الصاملي إشراف األستاذ الدكتور ربيع سعيد طه متطلب تكميلي لهيل درجة املاجستري يف علم الهفس ختصص إحصاء وحبوث الفصل الدراسي الثاني للعام الدراسي 3657 ه م
2 الدراسة مستخلص ) أ)
3 Abstract Title of the Study used time-series to forecast the number of students applying for postgraduate studies at Umm Al-Qura University. the study aims at building a model of public trend for the number of male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) at Umm Al-Qura University Using the style of time- series for the next ten years analysis (1434 H H.), and The researcher used the descriptive developing approach and the following questions were discussed, What are the forecasting values of time-series for the numbers of male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) during the next ten years? Are there statistical significant differences between the average of directional values of time- series of the numbers of male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) at Umm Al-Qura University due to the difference of statistical methods used? Are there any regular(cyclical variation ) changes and irregular variation ( casual ) of time-series of the numbers of male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) at Umm Al-Qura University? The most important findings of the study is Getting the average of forecasting values for the next ten years (1434 H H.) and the number of students ranged from male students (1267) and female students (1368). The study proved that there weren't any statistical differences between the averages of time series of the male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) at Umm Al-Qura University for the next ten years (1434 H H.) are due to the difference of statistical methods. The trend averages suggest a continuous increase in all forecasting values of male and female students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ) at Umm Al-Qura University. The study assured that there are regular and irregular variations or both of them and they are not stable and differ according to increase or decrease from time to time. The study recommended that Researchers can use any of the four methods to analyze the time-series and it's preferable to use the small squares because it depends on statistical averages and has developed computer programs which makes it easier to use it. as well as urging the responsible authorities to develop appropriate plans to accommodate the expected increase in the number of male and female students. The most prominent suggestions of the study were Teaching a curriculum of time series at the College of Education at Umm Al-Qura University for students of post graduate studies ( Master degree ). Making similar studies of time series of the numbers of students of Doctorate. Making similar studies in other governmental universities in the kingdom. Making similar studies using Box -Genkins method and comparing the findings together. ) ب)
4 اإلهداء ) ج)
5 والتقدير الشكر. ) د)
6 املوضوعات قائنة ) ه)
7 املوضوعات قائنة تابع ) و)
8 املوضوعات قائنة تابع ) ز)
9 اجلداول ) ح)
10 اجلداول قائنة تابع ) ط)
11 األشكال قائنة ) ي)
12 املالحق قائنة ) ك)
13 ) 1)
14 )2)
15 )3)
16 )4)
17 )5)
18 )6)
19 )7)
20 )8)
21 ) 9)
22 )11)
23 )11)
24 )12)
25 )13)
26 )14)
27 )15)
28 )16)
29 )17)
30 )18)
31 )19)
32 )21)
33 )21)
34 )22)
35 Y X 2 2 Y1 X 1 Y Y1 X X 1 )23)
36 ن 2 )24)
37 b = xy x 2 nx nxy 2 y )25)
38 x = 0 a = y b xy = 2 x Y = a + b + 2 1x b2 x y = a + x b )26)
39 Yˆ Yˆ Y Yˆ Y Yˆ )27)
40 مجموع متوسطات الفصول عدد الفصول ١٠٠* مشاھدات الظاھرة المتوسط العام ١٠٠* مشاھدات الظاھرة الدلیل الموسمي )28)
41 متوسط الفصل مجموع المتوسطات )29)
42 Y T * S ( S * C * I) * 100 S Y T * C Y T * C * S )31)
43 )31)
44 )32)
45 )33)
46 )34)
47 )35)
48 )36)
49 )37)
50 )38)
51 Y i = T i S i S i S i i Y i i T i i i S i S i )39)
52 y = a + bx y a b x )41)
53 )41)
54 )42)
55 )43)
56 1200 شكل ) ٢ ): الا عمدة البیانیة لسلسلة أعداد طلاب الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنمة ١٤١٤ ھ - ١٤٣٤ ھ أعداد الطلاب ١٤١٤ ١٤١٥ ١٤١٦ ١٤١٧ ١٤١٨ ١٤١٩ ١٤٢٠ ١٤٢١ ١٤٢٢ ١٤٢٣ ١٤٢٤ ١٤٢٥ السنوات ١٤٢٦ ١٤٢٧ ١٤٢٨ ١٤٢٩ ١٤٣٠ ١٤٣١ ١٤٣٢ ١٤٣٣ ١٤٣٤ )44)
57 1200 شكل ) ٣ ): الرسم الا نتشاري لسلسلة أعداد طلاب الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنیة ١٤١٤ ھ - ١٤٣٤ ھ أعداد الطلاب السنوات )45)
58 أعداد الطالب y = * x R- Square = 0.95 Linear Regression السنوات )46)
59 )47) b A Y = a + b x Y = + x. X X
60 a b )48)
61 )49) Y= a + b x, Y= + x. X X
62 )51) a =Σy/n =, b = Σxy/Σx 2 = x Y=, Y = a + b x (y) X X 2 X*Y X
63 a = y b xy = 2 x a =, b= Y = a + b x, Y = + x. X X*Y X 2 X (y) )51)
64 )52) (y) X X 2 X*Y X
65 )53)
66 شكل ) :(٥ الا عمدة البیانیة لسلسلة أعداد طالبات الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنمة ١٤١٤ ھ- ١٤٣٤ االطالبات أعداد السلوات )54)
67 1200 شكل (٦): الرسم الا نتشاري لسلسلة أعداد طالبات الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنمة ١٤١٤ ھ - ١٤٣٤ ھ أعداد الطالبات السنوات )55)
68 )56)
69 طالبات 1000 طالبات = * سنوا ت R- Square = 0.96 Linear Regression سنوات b A Y = a + b x Y= - + x X X )57)
70 )58) X X
71 )59) a b x Y= Y= a + bx, X X
72 X X a =Σy/n =, b = Σxy/Σx 2 = Y = a + b x, Y = + x. )61)
73 )61) (y) X X 2 X*Y X = 2 x xy b y a = a =, b = x Y= Y=a + bx,
74 )62) (y) X X 2 X*Y X
75 )63)
76 )64)
77 شكل ) :(٨ الا عمدة البیانیة لسلسلة أعداد طلاب/طالبات الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنمة ١٤١٤ ھ- ١٤٣٤ الطلاب/ أعداد االطالبات السلوات )65)
78 2500 شكل ) ٩ ): الرسم الا نتشاري لسلسلة أعداد طلاب/طالبات الدراسات العلیا بجامعة أم القرى خلال الفترة الزمنمة ١٤١٤ ھ - ١٤٣٤ ھ أعداد الطلاب/الطالبات السنوات )66)
79 )67)
80 كلي كلي = * سنوا ت R- Square = 0.98 Linear Regression سنوات b A Y = a + b x Y = + x )68)
81 )69) X X
82 a b Y = a + b x Y = + x )71)
83 )71) X X
84 a =Σy/n =, b = Σxy/Σx 2 = Y = a + b x, Y = + x. X X*Y X 2 X (y) )72)
85 )73) b =, a = x Y= Y = a+ b x, (y) X X 2 X*Y X
86 )74)
87 )75)
88 )76)
89 )77)
90 )78)
91 )79)
92 )81) تاونسلا (y)بلاطلا میقلا ةیھاجتلاا ( % ) تاریتا تلا ةیي اجفلاو ةیرودلا ةیرودلا ةیي اجفلا
93 )81) تاونسلا (y)بلاطلا میقلا ةیھاجتلاا ( % ) تاریتا تلا ةیي اجفلاو ةیرودلا ةیرودلا ةیي اجفلا
94 )82) تاونسلا (y)تابلاط/بلاط میقلا ةیھاجتلاا ( % ) تاریتا تلا ةیي اجفلاو ةیرودلا ةیرودلا ةیي اجفلا
95 )83)
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107 )95)
108 املالحق )96)
109 )97)
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116 )114)
117 )115)
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122 )111)
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129 )117)
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